Are Physical Games Becoming Too Unpredictable to Wait For?

 

This morning, retailer VGP (Video Games Plus) issued a warning on social media about what they are experiencing when it comes to the physical game market. They noted that smaller print runs, tighter allocations and increasingly difficult or expensive restocks have made it less certain that games will remain available after launch.

They added that even preorders can no longer guarantee customers a copy, as production quantities can change and retailers may receive fewer units than expected. What they are saying, more or less, is that if you want to buy a game physically, preordering may be becoming increasingly important for securing a copy in a market where simply waiting for a restock can no longer be taken for granted.

Quite honestly, this changes everything.

Last month, I wrote about how gaming was becoming increasingly expensive and listed a few ways one could save money. One of those suggestions was to simply not buy games when they first come out and instead wait for the first substantial price cut. Unfortunately, it appears that strategy may no longer be as effective. Based on what we are seeing, waiting may now end up being the more expensive option.

I have seen something similar happen with PS Vita cartridges. As Sony was winding down cartridge production, physical releases became increasingly constrained, and publishers eventually had to work within the remaining cartridge supply. In the end, publishers such as Limited Run Games and EastAsiaSoft, through Play-Asia, had games with final physical print runs as low as 1,000 copies.

Is this happening again?

We don't know. VGP's comments don't tell us what is happening behind the scenes with manufacturers or publishers. Are disc manufacturers charging more for smaller production runs? Are they limiting how many copies can be produced? Are publishers simply being more conservative with how much they order?

But if retailers are already experiencing smaller allocations, tighter supply and more difficult restocks, it raises the possibility that something fundamental is changing in how games are being produced and distributed.

This is where preordering becomes more important than ever. If retailers are receiving fewer copies and future reprints are uncertain, preordering may simply become a way of securing a copy before the available supply runs out. Rather than waiting for a price drop or hoping a game will be restocked later, you are securing a copy at launch because you already know you want it.

This doesn't mean everyone should suddenly preorder every game. The point is that the old strategy of waiting for a discount becomes harder to rely on when we don't know how much stock will be available or whether another print run will happen. In other words, the physical game market may be reaching a point where we can no longer assume that waiting will be the cheaper option.

The bigger problem could be unpredictability. We won't know which games will receive smaller print runs, which games will go out of stock quickly, or whether a particular game will receive another print run. That uncertainty makes physical game collecting considerably messier and potentially more expensive as supply and demand begin to play a much larger role. That could change how we approach physical game collecting.

As I have pointed out in the past, digital storefronts offer convenience, but a physical release is something tangible that can be bought, sold and even lent out. It offers something beyond what is being provided by a digital storefront.

If production does become more deliberate and limited, then owning a copy may become more important than ever. At that point, ownership is not simply about having something tangible. It becomes about control and preservation.